[W]hen they tell you that there’s a 30 percent chance of rain, people think oh, that’s being wishy-washy. Will it rain or not? I want to know. That just reflects a more honest view of mankind’s predictive powers.
If you want to change a habit, …don’t try and change everything at once. Instead, figure out what the cue is, figure out what the reward is and find a new behavior that is triggered by that cue and delivers that same reward.